Last night, I started writing down my predictions for 2007, but I have so many predictions it is no longer funny. It turned out to be impossible to capture them in a single coherent blog post, so I'll continue to share my predictions throughout the new year as I've been doing for a while now.

That said, here is one Drupal prediction to start the new year with:

There are many million websites out there. But by the end of 2007, if you take 1,000 random websites, at least 3 of them will run Drupal. Spam sites and pornographic websites must be excluded from any such experiment.

Comments

bpocanada (not verified):

Dries,

If Wiki functionality can be improved and a new forum like vBulletin can be released, I think the number can go up slightly.

Importantly, many Enterprise Intranets will run Drupal in 2007. So all in all - it looks to be a very promising year for Drupal.

Roshan

Jeff Robbins (not verified):

I think you can estimate considerably higher if you filter that 1,000 sites slightly.

My predictions:

  • Of top 20% most trafficked sites: 30 in 1,000 (3%)
  • Of top 40% non-profit sites: 50 in 1,0000 (5%)
  • Of new social-networking sites launched in 2006/2007: 100 in 1,000 (10%)
  • Of new intranet (non-public) websites: 150 in 1,000 (15%)
  • Of major-media (record labels, television networks, radio) websites launched or modified 2007: (there won't be 1,000, so I'll just jump to the %) 30%
  • Of free, open source, PHP-based CMS sites launched in 2007: 600 in 1,000 (60%)

I'm on optimist. But based on the interactions we've been having at Lullabot, these numbers seem pretty accurate. And I should add that that the graph remains on an incline. We have yet to have anyone come to us considering Drupal that left choosing NOT to go with Drupal.

To summarize my predictions: Yet more ass-kicking for 2007!

Bèr Kessels (not verified):

There are two parameters that show the impact of a CMS: the number of sites running that CMS and the amount of people effectively using it.

You can have 1000 sites running your CMS, all serving 10 users a year: 10.000 unique users are using your CMS. You can also have 1 site serving 1 million users. That CMS has a much bigger impact on "the web", even though only one site runs it.

Do you have any idea about how Drupal is doing in this? Say compared to larger Java based systems, or big .NET web-apps? Drupal is very good in the small-site market, so, effectively those 0.3% you mention, may not have a real effect on "the web" after all?

My idea is that Drupal's good SEO-ness makes the Drupal-powered sites in general 'more popular' then those built with other CMSes covering the same topics. So my guess is that Drupal does rather well in reaching Big Masses after all.